Josh Coates' study of possible physical properties of the Golden Plates provides millions of valid combinations.
Josh Coates, "A Combinatorial Approach to Modeling all Possible Golden Plates," Interpreter: A Journal of Latter-day Saint Faith and Scholarship 66, 2025, 1-70, accessed April 22, 2026
Abstract
Historical reports containing information about the properties of the golden plates provide upper and lower bounds for calculating possible configurations of their size, weight, and material composition, as well as the possible properties of reformed Egyptian. This study employs a two-part process to analyze these configurations. First, it examines the physical properties of the plates, generating over 4 billion possible combinations. Second, it analyzes the nature of the writing on the plates, assuming the translated English text of the Book of Mormon is directly representative of the reformed Egyptian engravings. This process involves calculating and filtering combinations based on historical accounts, physical constraints, and linguistic considerations. The study demonstrates that while the overwhelming majority of configurations are unworkable, nearly one million configurations remain both physically possible and consistent with the documentary record. Key findings suggest the plates likely had less than 20% gold content, weighed more than 54 lb., contained between 187 and 259 plates, and had dimensions slightly smaller than but within 10% of Joseph Smith’s description. The writing on the plates likely averaged less than 5 mm square, with each character of “reformed Egyptian” representing at least three English characters, similar to Demotic. Although there are inherent limitations in historical analysis of this kind, this mathematical approach provides a novel perspective on the physical reality of the plates.
There are dozens of nineteenth-century reports about the physical properties of the ancient record Joseph Smith recovered from a hill near his home in Palmyra, New York, in 1827. The quality of these sources varies widely, ranging from early firsthand accounts to late, unsourced reports, presenting a challenge for historical analysis.
Despite the abundance of reports, the exact physical properties of the plates remain uncertain. While many scholars have made reasonable estimates about the size, weight, number of plates, and their material composition, this paper takes a novel approach. Rather than contributing another estimate, it describes a systematic process for determining all mathematically possible configurations of the plates, given a set of constraints derived from historical accounts.
This process not only computes valid configurations of the plates but also demonstrates that numerous physical and writing configurations are plausible, contradicting the claims of critics who have argued otherwise.
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Step 3: Calculate All Possible Combinations of Writing Properties
Using the ranges and steps established in Step 2, the calculation yields 1,987,536,460 possible combinations of writing properties for the plates. However, not all combinations are compatible with the physical properties of the plates determined in Part One.
To refine these results, a filter is applied to remove any writing property combinations that lack a corresponding valid physical plate configuration. This filter eliminates combinations that would require more plates than physically possible or would not provide sufficient surface area for the text.
This filtering process removes 99.8% of the initial combinations, leaving 3,493,916 valid writing combinations. These remaining combinations represent writing properties that are both internally consistent and compatible with at least one valid physical configuration of the plates. See Figure 7.
Step 4: Apply Filters to the Results
After calculating all possible combinations of writing properties, further refinement is possible by applying additional filters based on linguistic and historical considerations. Two filters are applied in this step: one related to translation density and another concerning the estimated length of the lost 116 pages.
Translation Density
Moroni, who completed the abridged Nephite records, indicated that they were written in reformed Egyptian. He stated that they would have been written in Hebrew if the plates had sufficient surface area. This statement implies that Hebrew has a lower translation density than reformed Egyptian.
Based on this implication, it is reasonable to exclude all writing combinations that are less dense than Hebrew. Applying this filter reduces the ~3.5 million valid writing combinations to 2,302,902 valid combinations. See Figure 8.
The Lost 116 Pages
The initial calculations allowed for a wide range in the estimated length of the lost 116 pages, up to twice the length of the small plates of Nephi. However, a careful examination of the text of the Book of Mormon and the Doctrine and Covenants seems to indicate that the lost 116 pages were a less detailed and shorter summary of the small plates of Nephi.43 See Appendix F: Lost 116 Pages.
Removing all combinations that consider the lost 116 pages to be longer than the plates of Nephi further reduces the number of valid writing combinations from nearly 3.5 million to 863,830. See Figure 9.
Conclusion
This study presents a novel approach to understanding the physical and linguistic properties of the golden plates described in the historical record of the Book of Mormon. By systematically analyzing all mathematically possible configurations consistent with the range of constraints derived from historical accounts, this research yields several significant insights:
1. Mathematical Plausibility: The study demonstrates that the golden plates, as described in historical accounts, are mathematically possible with over 4 billion possible configurations. And through the application of various heuristics, linguistic considerations and experimental data the number of plausible configurations may be narrowed to about 865,000.
2. Linguistic Quantification: The analysis of translation density provides a quantitative basis for understanding how the text of the Book of Mormon may have been contained within the described physical constraints of the plates.
3. Likely Characteristics: Based on the most plausible configurations, the study suggests that:
a. The plates likely contained less than 20% gold content.
b. The total weight of the plates was at least 54 lb.
c. The total number of plates ranged between 187 and 259, including the plates in the sealed portion.
d. The dimensions of the plates were slightly smaller than Joseph Smith's description but within 10% of his estimates.
e. The engraved characters on the plates averaged less than 5 mm square.
f. Each character of reformed Egyptian likely represented at least three English characters, similar to the density of Demotic text.
While these findings provide a more precise understanding of the possible characteristics of the plates, it is important to note that the exact physical and writing properties remain unknown. This study does not prove the existence or authenticity of the plates but, rather, demonstrates their mathematical plausibility within the framework of historical descriptions.